Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Nigeria

Authors

  • Shehu El-Rasheed, PhD Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria
  • Bello Muhammad Abdullahi Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria
  • Abdullateef Mustapha Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.57233/gijmss.v6i3.13

Keywords:

Food prices, Inflation, Dynamics, ARDL, Nigeria

Abstract

In Nigeria, inflation dynamics and food prices have been a major concern for policymakers and the public alike. In recent years, the country has experienced a surge in food prices, which has contributed to the rise in inflation. This study employs the linear autoregressive distributive lag model to investigate inflation dynamics and food prices in Nigeria, with a specific focus on identifying the fundamental factors driving the increase in food prices. Using annual data from 1990 to 2021, the study examines the relationships between oil price, exchange rate, money supply, and government expenditure, and their varying long- and short-term effects on inflation and food prices in Nigeria. The Bound test cointegration results confirm that the variables are cointegrated, highlighting the presence of a long-term relationship among them. Our findings reveal that higher oil prices exert a short-term large positive influence on food prices, but their long-term impact is negligible. Conversely, increased money supply significantly impacts food prices in both the short and long term. Additionally, an increased exchange rate inversely impacts food prices in the long-term. These results highlight crucial policy implications for curbing food price increases, reducing the welfare effects while, maintaining lower prices and ensuring its sustainability.

Author Biographies

Shehu El-Rasheed, PhD, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria

Department of Economics and Development Studies,
Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria

Bello Muhammad Abdullahi, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria

Department of Economics and Development Studies,
Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria

Abdullateef Mustapha, Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria

Department of Economics and Development Studies,
Federal University of Kashere, Gombe State, Nigeria

Downloads

Published

2023-10-23

How to Cite

Shehu, E.-R., Abdullahi, B. M. ., & Mustapha, A. . (2023). Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Nigeria. Gusau International Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 6(3), 237–255. https://doi.org/10.57233/gijmss.v6i3.13